Alfa-Bank published a macroeconomic report, indicating that the World Cup had a beneficial effect on the Russian economy.
Presented macro tatristics shows that in the period of the World Cup, consumption increased by 3% compared to the same period last year. Improving indicators are associated not only with the influx of foreigners, but also with increasing retail lending by 18.9% y / y, which will be able to have a long influence. In addition, a record low unemployment rate (4.7%) was recorded, an increase in real wages by 8.7%, and nominal by 11.2%. Analysts expect that the resulting impulse will continue in July.
For six months of 2018, industrial production added 3% y / y, but this strongly contributed to almost two-time decrease in import growth in the second quarter. Despite the overall positive trend, Rosstat did not change the forecast of the increase in GDP.
Future prospects are not as optimistic. Due to the approved rates of VAT rates since 2019, the Ministry of Economic Development recently reduced the assessment of the future GDP growth with 2.1% y / g to 1.4% y / y. The delay in the introduction of pension reform can lead to the search for the government of alternative ways to replenish the budget and the slowdown in development.
It is expected that the Central Bank will tighten regulation in the area of non-phantation lending to better manage inflationary risks. The global trend on increasing interest rates is an additional risk factor. Therefore, despite the current favorable statistics, analysts of Alfa-Bank call the prospects for the growth of the Russian economy in the second half of the foggy.