In his new economic model analytics Citigroup Inc. The worst scenario of development is considered to be the fall of the ruble exchange rate by 15% due to the US entry of sanctions against Russian government bonds.
A group of researchers believes that such an extreme state decision is only with respect to emission of new OFS weaken the ruble by 5%. The development of such a scenario contributes to the growth of negativity in Congress recently and calls for tightening sanctions due to the Kremlin intervention in the presidential election of 2016. The implementation of these plans is considered unlikely, since earlier the US Treasury stated that such a decision would have a negative impact on the US economy and international.
Foreigners are now holding about 28% of Russian government bonds, so a significant outflow of capital will be able to quickly weaken the ruble. However, according to the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, the negative impact can be reduced at the expense of local banks. Citigroup analysts believe that this can also be achieved by attracting new buyers, but this is a difficult task, because debt amount is $ 35 billion.
American economists hope that the government will not go to extreme measures, as it will cause a panic on the market, which the authorities prefer to avoid. Although researchers talk about the deferment of new sanctions due to the summer break and insist on maintaining potential risk in the future.
Forecasts do not always correspond to actual indicators.